on the other hand it turns out that voters like barack obama. swing state voters like barack obama. they may have questions about the economy, but it really is turning out to be a surprise election because i think that the base and more than the base, is anxious to turn out for barack obama. >> there is sort of a hidden truth beneath this conspiracy talk and that is that most polls are prediction about who will turn out. and a lot of the models predict that obama coalition that turned out last time that tilted in some ways more democratic and in some ways more young, will turn out again. that's based on data itself and it interesting a lot of independent pollsters have come to that conclusion. is there any point hidden in here or just really a bankrupt talking point? >> it's not a prediction. they're asking people are you going to vote and they're saying yes. are you a republican or democrat, that shifts around based on how people are feeling and vote for. but i think one of the things you're seeing in these polls and this story about polling is what you guys said before about havin